Split a pot across four investments, run a decade, then run it again — and see why one lucky result proves nothing.
See that investment returns are random: diversification narrows the range of outcomes without giving up much expected return, and a strategy has to be judged by its whole distribution rather than by the one run you happened to get.
Press 'All in on the hot stock', then run the decade five times over, watching the final number each time.
Before you act, predict what will happen. How much did the results differ from each other? Would you have called this a good strategy after seeing only your best run? Then do it — did your prediction match what happened?
What this strategy usually does
Worst, typical and best final wealth across 200 simulated decades of this exact split.
These figures come from 200 simulated runs of a simplified model. They describe this model's behaviour, not a prediction about real markets — and nothing here is investment advice.